Firstly, let's rewind...

What happened in the HR market in 2025

The year of "do more with less" finally hit structural limits.

Capability gaps became impossible to ignore. Organisations ran lean for too long. HR teams were stretched, reactive, and trying to cover BAU, compliance, transformation and workforce risk with the same headcount they had pre pandemic. 2025 exposed where functions were under invested and where capability had hollowed out.

Transformation did not slow down. It intensified. AI adoption accelerated, especially in WR ER payroll and data heavy work. Org redesign, operating model shifts, consolidations and restructuring continued at pace. HR was pulled into business survival mode and strategic advisory at the same time. Big cognitive load. Big fatigue.

Compliance risk went through the roof. Psychosocial risk, payroll remediation, IR complexity and the "please don't let us be on Four Corners" fear dominated exec agendas. HR spent most of the year firefighting instead of building.

Talent behaviour shifted. Candidates were more selective, more risk averse, and less willing to jump without extreme clarity. Senior talent in particular stayed put unless the opportunity was materially better.

The reset is coming.

Investment is returning, especially in private sector. Early indicators point to improved activity, rising confidence and more funding for capability. HR leaders will finally get the mandate and budget to rebuild properly rather than patchwork.

Capability uplift becomes priority number one. Workforce planning, org design, remuneration governance, ER WR, OD and capability build will get serious investment. Boards are asking whether they have the right people leading this function.

HR is shifting from operator to architect.

Strategy, design, risk and workforce modelling will be core to the role, not nice to have. HR will be expected to lead the conversation on productivity, skills, AI impact and operating model effectiveness.

AI will force maturity. Leaders will start differentiating between automation and augmentation. HR functions that integrate AI into workflows, not just tools, will leap ahead in speed, insight and service quality. Expect new roles emerging around people analytics, talent intelligence and AI governance.

Culture and leadership are back in the spotlight. After two years of fatigue, restructures, turnover and trust erosion, 2026 will require real leadership behaviour change. Hard leadership behaviours are in. Courage, clarity, decision making and accountability.

The HR job market.

It is moving. Slowly at first. Then fast.

Hiring volumes will lift mid Q3 into Q4. Especially in mid to senior HR capability. Exec movement will rise as leaders who held on through restructures finally make a move.

Demand spikes in specific HR disciplines. ER WR due to IR changes and enterprise risk. Reward and governance due to remuneration structures, board reporting and pay equity scrutiny. OD, change and capability for transformation heavy organisations that need actual architects. Workforce planning and analytics. HRBPs who can genuinely partner, not just program manage.

Talent shortages will re-emerge.

Particularly for strategic HR talent who can operate at pace and navigate complexity. The people who kept their organisations afloat in 2024 and 2025 will be the hottest commodity in 2026.

The salary market stabilises. Not inflationary but firm. Top talent will command strong packages because capability gaps are obvious and costly.

Candidates at $180K plus will be more confident moving again. They have been cautious but economic confidence and better briefs will drive movement.

What organisations will focus on in 2026.

The workforce economy is shifting.

Productivity obsession intensifies. Boards want measurable uplift, not vibes. HR will be asked to quantify skills, capability and organisational effectiveness in ways they have not before.

Skills over job descriptions. Skills based hiring, skills mapping and internal mobility become critical levers. Organisations will look for practical frameworks, not theory.

Hybrid does not die but it becomes formalised. Clearer rules and fewer grey zones. Expect more purposeful presence models and less emotional debate.

Workforce risk and governance get executive attention. RemCo pressure. Wage compliance. Safety and psychosocial risk. Talent supply and succession. HR will be expected to forecast, not react.

2025 was the year HR hit capacity. 2026 is the year HR gets rebuilt.